Chris Messina has a wonderful write up about something I've had a lot of interest in called
The Death of the URL. I highly recommend taking a look. While I think he is correct, I have a slightly different perspective. I agree that the current effort by some companies to take advantage of new interfaces to funnel users (ahem: money) their way is dangerous and deserves every pint of paranoia but ultimately they won't last. Those companies know that it won't last but they'll make a boat load of money, build their brand, and look like saints when they finally open up.
On the other hand, I really dislike the implication that we need the URL in all its raw glory. The idea of future generations growing up without knowing what a URL is does not scare me -- it delights me. If the web has shown me anything it's that, out here, once something is open it doesn't close. What we're afraid of in the exhibits on display in Chris' post is not the removal of the URL it's the removal of the flexibility a URL provides. I would prefer to frame the death of the URL as the death of the file path. Which is to say, it's not really dead, it has just matured into a more visually compelling and human-oriented metaphor.